Showing posts with label predictive markets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictive markets. Show all posts

Monday, July 07, 2008

For sale: Coverage in The Economist ($1,000 obo)

The 2003 California Recall Election offered one of the best values for shameless self-promoters in recent history. For $3,500 and 65 signatures, your name and personal statement would reach tens of millions of people as a candidate for Governor.

This bar-lowering allowed people often left out of gubernatorial politics, such as brewers, satanists, pornographers, railroad car brake operators, prop-based comedians and tiny thespians, a chance to get their name and message across in an arena where millions were likely to notice.

Fast forward to 2008. This time it's The Economist offering low cost publicity.

Attempting to justify an article attacking Senator Jim Webb as a poor choice for Barack Obama's running mate, despite neither Webb nor anyone in Obama's campaign suggesting he's under consideration or would take the position, presented the following explanation:

"No one but Mr. Obama knows whom he will pick, but the buzz around Mr. Webb is loud enough to make in the favourite on Intrade, a betting website. So it is worth examining his weaknesses, too."

The problem with this is that only about $1,000 was actually wagered on Jim Webb via InTrade. Don't tell Gallagher.

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Clash of the Genocidal Powers

The final four teams in the UEFA Euro Cup 2008 are familiar names to students of modern history. Turkey (Armenia), Germany (Jews, Gypsies, Gays, etc.), Spain (all New World indigenous peoples) and Russia (Ukraine and their own) made it through to the semifinals from a wider field of European nations vying for this years cup.

Germany dispatched Turkey late yesterday and Spain and Russia are now set for the kick-off. I sit amused as I listen to the Russian anthem play since it is sung to the tune of the old Soviet anthem thanks to a change Putin made in 2000.

Perhaps our Predictive Markets Correspondent can figure out some odds for this game and the final based on the scale and date of the genocides?